The short answer
Turning failure rate and decline mix into a defensible forecast.
Recoverable pool = MRR x failure rate x blended recovery rate. Weight by decline mix; an expired-card-heavy book forecasts far higher. Hold the window at 14 days so the forecast stays comparable month to month.
Working through it
Involuntary churn behaves differently from voluntary churn: there is no objection to overcome, only a payment detail and a message that has to arrive.
That means the operating levers are timing, channel and clarity — in that order. Copy polish is the last few points, not the first.
How much of your involuntary churn is recoverable?
Compares a 40% single-channel baseline against the 63.8% RRLabs platform average.
- At risk / month
- $5,600
- Extra recovered / month
- $1,333
- Annualised, less $3,000 plan
- $12,994
What to do this week
Split your churn dashboard into voluntary and involuntary. Then split involuntary by decline code.
Fix the worst cell with a reason-specific message on a second channel, and measure over a fixed 14-day window.